ISM: Manufacturing Slips, But That's Normal
转载 2009-12-03 13:31 MMH Source:MMHThe Institute for Supply Management (ISM) says the rate of growth in the manufacturing sector has slipped slightly, but that's to be expected, even in the best of times.
The manufacturing sector slipped backward a bit in November after months of steady growth, but the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is still confident that the sector is still experiencing growth, and will continue to grow as part of a recovering economy.
"I think we've established a pattern of growth," said Norbert Ore, chair of ISM's Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "We expect it to be consistent and persistent."
ISM's index for measuring the overall manufacturing sector, or PMI, dropped 0.3 percentage points back in September, but otherwise has steadily grown from 32.9% in December 2008 to 55.7% in October of this year.
In November, the index dropped 2.1% to 53.6%, but Ore was quick to point out that a figure over 50 is officially in the "growth" category. Despite falling, November marks the fourth consecutive month of growth for the sector, Ore said.
In fact, the PMI is known to hover in the low 50s even when the economy is not in recession, Ore said, meaning that the index is bound to fluctuate up and down in this range. In all, Ore said not to read too much into the change in November.
"I don't think it's a big negative. I don't think it's a huge positive," Ore said.
The latest ISM report also shows that the New Orders index has gone up 1.8 points to 60.3%, with 13 out of 17 separate industries reporting growth in new order volume. In addition, the Inventory index has dropped 1.5 points to 37%. These factors, Ore said, all point to an economy that will continue to grow.
"Inventories are balanced, if anything, a bit light," Ore said.
The Employment index also dropped in November, by 2.3 points, to 50.8%. Ore said that figure can be misleading, as many manufacturers have hired temporary employees, and others have simply indicated a willingness to hire. The figure, despite being in "growth" range, he said, can be misleading.
"I think we pretty well know that's not the case," he said.
Employment, as well as consumer confidence, Ore said, will have to grow before any full-blown recovery can be under way, but ISM is still confident that the economy has hit bottom and is now, slowly but surely, recovering.
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