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Global Growth to Resume in 2010, The Conference Board ReportsWednesday, December 02, 2009

2009-12-30 12:29 Kind:转载 Author:MHIA Source:MHIA
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Global growth will resume in 2010, driven largely by the world’s emerging economies, according to The Conference...

Global growth will resume in 2010, driven largely by the world’s emerging economies, according to The Conference Board Global Economic Outllook.

 

In this new annual forecast The Conference Board predicts that world gross domestic product will grow 3.5 percent next year and ramp up to more than 4 percent in 2011.They also predict that global GDP could accelerate to 4.2 percent from 2011 to 2016. That would mark an impressive recovery after one of the worst recessions in recent history.

 

“Global growth will resume in 2010, with global output per head returning to pre-crisis levels,” said Bart van Ark, chief economist, The Conference Board. “Looking further out, emerging and developing economies will account for a much larger share of the global pie – as much as two thirds by 2016. And while China will surely be a major force in the unwinding of the crisis, we’ll see other emerging markets increasingly fueling global growth.”

 

The group also predicts a shift in how economic growth is distributed around the globe. They estimate that developing countries will make up as much as two-thirds of global GDP by 2016. While GDP in the developed countries will grow an average of 1.5 percent from 2011 to 2016, GDP in developing countries grow 5.8 percent.

 

Advanced economies’ share of world GDP has fallen from two-thirds in 2000 to below 50 percent today and will hit one-third by 2016. China will remain a dominant economic force, but its growth will gradually slow as its transition proceeds to a consumer-driven economy. The U.S. will see growth moderate from historical levels as consumers spend less and save more. Europe and Japan are likely to recover slower than the U.S. in the near-term, due to remaining structural problems in their domestic markets and as the dollar's weakness relative to the euro and yen make their exports more expensive.

 

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