The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index slipped out of growth territory in November, but the institute stands by its assertion that the economy is recovering, and will continue to do so.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM)'s non-manufacturing index slipped back into the red in November, but the overall economic picture still points to an upward trend, according to the institute.

Anthony Nieves, chair of the ISM's Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said the non-manufacturing index, or NMI, which the institute uses to measure the non-manufacturing sector, fell 1.9 points to 48.7%. Technically, any number below 50 is classified as contraction, while a number above 50 represents growth.

At first glance, this looks like a backward slide after two previous months of growth, but Nieves said this slip was not a surprise, and not a sign of any kind of negative trend.

I see that as more sideways than anything, he said.

One factor in November's decline, Nieves said, was employment. While it did go up in November, it only rose 0.5 percentage points to 41.6%, which still qualifies as contracting. It has been below 50% for 22 out of the last 23 months.

We know that employment's dragging the index down, Nieves said.

What made things worse in November was a lack of business activity, which dropped 5.6 points to 49.6%. Even this, however, was not a shock, Nieves said. Typically, business activity hits a slump in the late fourth quarter, starting in November.

I think we'll see that continue, he said.

In fact, business activity may not pick up, he said, until February of 2010, so this may continue to hamper growth, but eventually the slump will end, as it always does.

I think overall we're still looking good for 2010, he said.

The new orders index went down 0.5 points in November, but stayed at 55.1%. This, in part, led to the price index jumping up 4.8 points to 57.8%. Nieves said the index was also following fuel prices, which are also up.